The European Commission this week published a lengthy (300+ pages) report entitled: “Interactive content and convergence: Implications for the information society”.

The European Commission this week published a lengthy (300+ pages) report entitled: "Interactive content and convergence: Implications for the information society". The publication, which was prepared for the Commission by an international consortium of media consultancies and law firms, provides an overview of the uptake of digital technology in the EU, including a number of case studies (such as the uptake of DAB radio in Sweden and the UK), economic forecasts and descriptions of the main roadblocks to digital convergence.

Unlike a number of recent publications on convergence, publishers Screen Digest have seen fit to include radio in the digital debate, devoting a thirty page section to some of the main issues affecting the radio sector. The section, which includes the most recent industry figures for advertising, DAB coverage and descriptions of the many competing digital broadcast standards, provides a relatively upbeat assessment of radio's future, even going so far as to suggest that despite "real success stories for digital interactive radio services having been rare" until now, the future of the "oldest mobile electronic medium" is far from moribund. The report also highlights the growth of internet simulcasting and podcasting and the positive contribution radio makes to media pluralism.

While the report is not all doom and gloom, it does, however highlight some areas of major concern for the radio industry. These include:

• "Uncertainty about the development of DAB and other broadcast digital radio standards hindering efforts from existent radio stations".
• "A lack of political will and pressure to switch-over"."
• Fragmented radio markets and thus small radio stations hindering large investments in new digital and interactive services from the traditional radio industry".

Despite the numerous obstacles to the growth of digital radio in the EU, the report suggests in its "forecast" section that by 2010 there will be roughly:

• 32m weekly online radio listeners
• 11m weekly podcast listeners and
• Almost 22m mobile radio listeners

This compares to a daily audience of about 346m for traditional radio services across the EU25 in 2005.

The report also states that "apart from the economic value, online radio and especially podcasting will probably stay niche markets. Mobile digital radio has the potential to become a mass market - but after 2010".

While the report provides an in-depth look at past, present and future trends in digital broadcast radio, it seems to suggest that the only business models for digital radio that will be viable in the long-term are subscription-based, using the growth of satellite radio in North America and radio's declining share of the advertising market in the EU (although not in the new Member States) as examples. 

It seems, then, that if the forecasts in the report are to be believed, radio's place in the digital future will be largely determined by whether or not broadcasters can rise to the challenge of "establishing business models beyond the classical advertising financing" and abandon free-to-air broadcasting. While this may be the conclusion of the report on digital radio, it remains to be seen if the European commercial radio sector will agree with the findings and commit to subscription-based digital services. The report does make a number of valid points, however, such as the assessment that future trends in radio broadcasting are "highly dependent on political and regulatory decisions which cannot yet be forecast".

Those wishing to download a copy of the report can do so from the Commission's website, here.